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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:35, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:35 → PDX 06:21AS 593 2h 42m Portland PDX 09:03 → LAS 11:19AS 1337 8h 44m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:29UA 1959 2h 18m Denver DEN 09:47 → LAS 10:56UA 1767 9h 53m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 23m Seattle SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01DL 2922 7h 31m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:02 → LAS 22:31DL 2949 9h 49m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 1h 27m Seattle SEA 12:07 → LAS 14:37DL 2880 7h 37m 94% 71%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 02:21 → SEA 06:53AS 98 1h 25m Seattle SEA 08:18 → LAS 10:46AS 612 7h 25m 93% 70%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:50 → SEA 11:17AS 48 2h 19m Seattle SEA 13:36 → LAS 16:03AS 728 8h 13m 98% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON