tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:29UA 1959 2h 33m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 10h 31m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628 7h 35m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 1h 55m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 8h 23m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 3h 00m Seattle SEA 21:46 → LAX 00:33 +1DL 2512 9h 21m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:50 → SEA 11:17AS 48 2h 56m Seattle SEA 14:13 → LAX 16:54AS 696 9h 04m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 3h 35m Seattle SEA 19:55 → LAX 22:33DL 2854 9h 51m 97% 68%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 02:21 → SEA 06:53AS 98 3h 41m Seattle SEA 10:34 → LAX 13:09AS 496 9h 48m 100% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON