Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:35, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 47 Alaska	ANC 00:08	PHX 06:27	21%	3%	3.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:35 → PDX 06:21AS 593	2h 40m Portland	PDX 09:01 → PHX 11:43AS 1350	9h 08m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 07:52 → PHX 10:49DL 2419	8h 19m	96%	81%
United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:29UA 1959	2h 35m Denver	DEN 10:04 → PHX 11:06UA 1782	10h 03m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442	9h 41m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	8h 21m	93%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:21 → SEA 06:53AS 98	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 09:56 → PHX 12:42AS 449	9h 21m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:50 → SEA 11:17AS 48	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	8h 55m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 47m	90%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON