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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:29UA 1959 3h 52m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 12h 01m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 2h 53m Seattle SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635 8h 47m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 3h 50m Seattle SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 9h 49m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 12m Seattle SEA 07:14 → SFO 09:26DL 1053 6h 56m 93% 68%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:35 → PDX 06:21AS 593 58m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 6h 41m 89% 67%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 30m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 87% 62%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:50 → SEA 11:17AS 48 1h 21m Seattle SEA 12:38 → SFO 14:45AS 655 6h 55m 93% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 10h 12m 74% 55%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 15:50 → PDX 20:43AS 2080 · flown by Horizon 48m Portland PDX 21:31 → SFO 23:21AS 697 6h 31m 42% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON