tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, UA 4657 at 09:31, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:31 SFO 11:10 36% 28% 21.0% 88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 6h 34m 92% 62%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:30 → DEN 09:35UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 7h 39m 100% 60%
UnitedDetails → ASE 19:15 → LAX 20:43UA 5940 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Los Angeles LAX 22:30 → SFO 00:00 +1UA 1047 5h 45m 89% 57%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 92% 55%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 91% 54%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:16 → LAX 09:38UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m Los Angeles LAX 13:29 → SFO 15:09UA 469 7h 53m 96% 53%
UnitedDetails → ASE 18:00 → DEN 19:05UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 5h 56m 86% 52%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 6h 55m 89% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 4h 55m 65% 42%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 5h 15m 68% 40%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:15 → DEN 10:33UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 4h 49m 43% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON