Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: 9E 5202 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day 9E 5202 ATL 08:31 → CAE 09:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2193 ATL 18:32 → CAE 19:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5202 Endeavor	ATL 08:31	CAE 09:42	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:04	CAE 11:11	11%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:32	CAE 13:39	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:33	CAE 15:40	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 3029 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CAE 23:43	20%	7%	0.9%	80%
DL 3008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:07	CAE 21:14	21%	6%	0.9%	84%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:13	CAE 17:20	23%	6%	0.9%	86%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:32	CAE 19:44	23%	7%	1.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON