Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3089 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3089 ATL 08:15 → GSP 09:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1021 ATL 18:51 → GSP 19:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	GSP 09:13	5%	1%	0.8%	91%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:55	GSP 12:55	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	GSP 10:57	9%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 3136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	GSP 21:31	18%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 2281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	GSP 22:55	19%	5%	0.8%	81%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:26	GSP 17:25	20%	5%	0.9%	80%
DL 1021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:51	GSP 19:50	22%	6%	1.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON