Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 222 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 222 ATL 06:04 → HOU 07:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4748 ATL 20:34 → HOU 21:47 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest	ATL 06:04	HOU 07:18	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	HOU 09:45	12%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 175 Southwest	ATL 09:55	HOU 11:08	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:11	HOU 13:25	16%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:29	HOU 22:43	20%	6%	0.8%	73%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	20%	5%	0.7%	81%
WN 3573 Southwest	ATL 15:14	HOU 16:28	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4748 Southwest	ATL 20:34	HOU 21:47	27%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON