Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 4930 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 4930 ATL 07:29 → HPN 09:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5013 ATL 15:49 → HPN 18:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4930 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 07:29	HPN 09:52	8%	4%	1.1%	89%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:26	HPN 12:46	14%	3%	0.9%	80%
DL 5435 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 12:10	HPN 14:33	17%	7%	1.3%	73%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:49	HPN 18:12	22%	9%	1.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON