Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 777 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 777 ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1115 ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:49 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 777 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	LAS 09:31	12%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 233 Southwest	ATL 06:54	LAS 08:18	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	LAS 11:00	16%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	LAS 12:02	18%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:15	LAS 14:18	19%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:52	LAS 17:19	22%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	LAS 17:52	22%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:35	LAS 23:56	23%	7%	0.7%	67%
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:24	LAS 19:46	23%	8%	1.0%	76%
DL 722 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:47	LAS 21:09	25%	7%	0.8%	63%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:42	LAS 10:09	30%	10%	1.1%	70%
WN 1854 Southwest	ATL 19:54	LAS 21:02	35%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 1115 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:20	LAS 22:49	42%	15%	1.2%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON