Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 8878 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 8878 ATL 07:17 → LAX 08:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3215 ATL 16:20 → LAX 18:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 8878 Delta	ATL 07:17	LAX 08:59	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:21	LAX 09:03	14%	3%	0.7%	68%
DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	15%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	17%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	17%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	18%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 8783 Delta	ATL 23:01	LAX 00:47	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 301 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:48	LAX 17:29	21%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 331 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	LAX 22:32	22%	6%	0.7%	72%
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:49	LAX 20:34	24%	8%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	24%	5%	0.7%	68%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	24%	7%	0.8%	77%
F9 4315 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:06	LAX 11:57	25%	9%	1.1%	74%
AA 1141 American	ATL 17:52	LAX 19:38	30%	10%	1.1%	no record
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:20	LAX 18:14	31%	14%	1.3%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	1h 15m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	6h 43m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521	6h 30m	84%	67%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:16DL 3157	1h 02m New Orleans	MSY 15:18 → LAX 17:20DL 872	6h 35m	85%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON