Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2204 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2204 ATL 07:25 → MCO 08:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2050 ATL 15:28 → MCO 17:03 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MCO 08:56	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 236 Southwest	ATL 08:03	MCO 09:37	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:56	11%	2%	0.8%	86%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	14%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 1562 Delta Flight history →	ATL 00:04	MCO 01:24	14%	5%	0.8%	73%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:27	MCO 08:07	16%	6%	1.2%	79%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	16%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	16%	4%	1.1%	81%
WN 223 Southwest	ATL 11:54	MCO 13:32	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:52	MCO 14:22	20%	5%	1.1%	77%
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:51	MCO 00:21	23%	7%	1.0%	68%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	MCO 15:25	23%	6%	1.3%	73%
WN 239 Southwest	ATL 19:24	MCO 21:01	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	26%	8%	1.2%	63%
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	MCO 21:53	26%	7%	0.9%	61%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	26%	8%	1.0%	62%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	26%	10%	1.2%	57%
F9 4556 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:47	MCO 11:22	27%	12%	1.2%	79%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	MCO 19:48	27%	9%	1.1%	57%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	28%	9%	1.2%	59%
DL 1302 Delta	ATL 21:36	MCO 23:06	29%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	MCO 22:15	35%	18%	1.4%	49%
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:28	MCO 17:03	40%	19%	1.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON