Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2999 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2999 ATL 08:05 → MKE 09:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1206 ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	MKE 09:06	7%	2%	1.7%	91%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:51	MKE 11:53	11%	3%	3.4%	90%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	MKE 13:50	13%	3%	2.6%	88%
DL 2152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:34	MKE 15:41	14%	4%	2.0%	84%
DL 1268 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:52	MKE 23:56	16%	5%	0.9%	81%
DL 2388 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:52	MKE 21:59	17%	5%	1.0%	65%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	MKE 17:40	24%	6%	1.4%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON