Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3182 at 12:17 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 3182 ATL 12:17 → MYR 13:37 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1093 ATL 16:45 → MYR 18:03 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	MYR 13:37	17%	5%	1.9%	92%
DL 3047 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:48	MYR 10:07	19%	4%	4.9%	81%
DL 3074 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:12	MYR 23:31	21%	6%	1.2%	79%
DL 1093 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	MYR 18:03	27%	7%	2.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON