Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2020 at 11:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2020 ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 2862 ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2020 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	OKC 12:12	13%	3%	0.9%	83%
DL 2490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:08	OKC 10:14	14%	2%	1.0%	90%
DL 2423 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:41	OKC 23:10	21%	6%	0.9%	81%
DL 2862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	OKC 16:22	25%	5%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON