Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2632 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2632 ATL 08:41 → OMA 10:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2010 ATL 21:54 → OMA 23:23 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2632 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	OMA 10:05	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 1125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:26	OMA 12:45	12%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 2364 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:09	OMA 16:37	21%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 2010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:54	OMA 23:23	23%	8%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON