Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1178 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–62%.

Safest bet that day DL 1178 ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1595 ATL 16:58 → ORD 18:17 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	ORD 08:35	12%	4%	1.4%	88%
AA 3040 American	ATL 07:33	ORD 08:47	17%	7%	1.8%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:02	ORD 10:10	18%	5%	1.2%	80%
UA 1955 United	ATL 07:55	ORD 09:12	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 1199 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	ORD 23:53	22%	10%	1.1%	71%
AA 1041 American	ATL 11:09	ORD 12:18	25%	11%	1.5%	no record
UA 1288 United	ATL 11:15	ORD 12:33	25%	12%	1.6%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:22	ORD 12:34	25%	8%	1.7%	70%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:18	ORD 14:41	31%	18%	1.9%	81%worse than usual
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:02	ORD 14:14	33%	16%	2.5%	76%
AA 1153 American	ATL 12:49	ORD 13:58	34%	18%	3.9%	no record
UA 2657 United	ATL 19:07	ORD 20:24	35%	17%	1.2%	no record
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:47	ORD 09:07	35%	11%	2.0%	73%
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	37%	17%	1.3%	74%worse than usual
DL 1139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:37	ORD 20:48	38%	11%	1.1%	60%
AA 3033 American	ATL 19:24	ORD 20:40	39%	14%	2.1%	no record
AA 1138 American	ATL 16:43	ORD 17:59	41%	20%	3.1%	no record
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	ORD 16:35	41%	16%	2.0%	62%
AA 2910 American	ATL 15:12	ORD 16:20	42%	18%	3.7%	no record
UA 1850 United	ATL 17:05	ORD 18:21	47%	20%	1.6%	no record
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:45	48%	16%	2.7%	49%
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:58	ORD 18:17	62%	30%	3.7%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON