Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2983 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2983 ATL 07:14 → PHX 08:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 493 ATL 20:39 → PHX 21:44 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2983 Southwest	ATL 07:14	PHX 08:21	13%	2%	1.6%	no record
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	16%	3%	1.0%	81%
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	18%	5%	1.1%	88%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PHX 12:03	21%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	PHX 14:18	24%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:47	PHX 21:48	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	PHX 22:39	28%	7%	0.8%	75%
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	PHX 17:46	29%	7%	0.8%	73%
AA 883 American	ATL 17:53	PHX 19:14	32%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 493 Southwest	ATL 20:39	PHX 21:44	37%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON