Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1930 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1930 ATL 08:23 → SJU 12:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2082 ATL 11:53 → SJU 15:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1930 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:23	SJU 12:03	11%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 1882 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:14	SJU 13:58	14%	3%	0.9%	78%
DL 1946 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	SJU 16:39	16%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 1861 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	SJU 22:29	21%	7%	1.1%	67%
F9 2082 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:53	SJU 15:46	30%	10%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON