Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 904 ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 682 ATL 19:42 → SMF 21:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 904 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:16	SMF 11:00	14%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SMF 18:52	22%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:42	SMF 21:38	22%	6%	0.8%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	7h 01m	94%	83%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:27 → SMF 10:07AA 2081	7h 06m	92%	73%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	1h 07m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	7h 00m	88%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON