Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2605 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2605 ATL 07:25 → TPA 08:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3054 ATL 21:01 → TPA 22:42 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	TPA 08:54	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:38	TPA 10:07	9%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	TPA 11:29	13%	3%	1.1%	82%
WN 1837 Southwest	ATL 10:29	TPA 12:05	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	18%	4%	3.9%	85%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:14	TPA 15:56	19%	6%	1.2%	75%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:46	TPA 14:13	20%	4%	3.6%	80%
DL 1560 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	TPA 00:29	23%	7%	1.2%	72%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	TPA 16:58	24%	7%	1.3%	70%
DL 8844 Delta	ATL 21:08	TPA 22:47	25%	7%	1.4%	no record
DL 1591 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:36	TPA 23:08	25%	7%	1.4%	62%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	TPA 17:59	27%	9%	1.6%	74%
DL 3135 Delta	ATL 19:56	TPA 21:29	28%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:22	TPA 18:57	28%	9%	1.8%	66%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	29%	12%	1.6%	72%
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	30%	9%	1.3%	69%
WN 2568 Southwest	ATL 20:54	TPA 22:29	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:00	TPA 17:44	39%	20%	1.9%	66%
F9 3054 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:01	TPA 22:42	41%	18%	1.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON