Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:59	TUS 12:35	14%	3%	1.1%	87%
DL 1251 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:36	TUS 21:35	23%	7%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest	9h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	8h 56m	99%	86%
American Details →	ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777	3h 37m Phoenix	PHX 12:37 → TUS 13:38AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	8h 50m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	3h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest	9h 14m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	3h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest	9h 35m	98%	76%
United Details →	ATL 08:39 → DEN 09:57UA 340	1h 33m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	6h 53m	94%	74%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → TUS 11:10AA 2586	8h 09m	99%	72%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 11m Denver	DEN 15:39 → TUS 16:49UA 2049	8h 39m	97%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → TUS 11:10AA 2586	5h 48m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON