Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1032 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1032 AUS 06:19 → CLT 10:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3070 AUS 17:48 → CLT 21:36 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1032 American Flight history →	AUS 06:19	CLT 10:00	11%	4%	1.0%	92%
AA 818 American Flight history →	AUS 11:56	CLT 15:33	18%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 1052 American	AUS 15:40	CLT 19:26	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 3070 American Flight history →	AUS 17:48	CLT 21:36	29%	10%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON