Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 344 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 344 AUS 05:44 → LAS 06:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3645 AUS 12:19 → LAS 13:24 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest	AUS 05:44	LAS 06:39	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 345 Southwest	AUS 07:14	LAS 08:07	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2451 Southwest	AUS 09:49	LAS 10:42	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4683 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 03:31	LAS 04:43	20%	7%	0.9%	64%
WN 4578 Southwest	AUS 22:39	LAS 23:36	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 347 Southwest	AUS 13:02	LAS 13:59	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:20	25%	10%	0.7%	72%
WN 4200 Southwest	AUS 14:32	LAS 15:26	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 391 Southwest	AUS 15:53	LAS 16:47	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2088 Southwest	AUS 19:40	LAS 20:34	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 12:19	LAS 13:24	35%	11%	1.0%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON