Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3015 at 16:54, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3015 Southwest	AUS 16:54	LGB 18:09	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	5h 44m	88%	75%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	83%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON