Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 541 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 07:15	PDX 09:25	10%	3%	0.9%	90%
AS 1396 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 17:41	PDX 19:50	19%	6%	0.9%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → PDX 12:34DL 1661	8h 24m	98%	89%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	6h 08m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 58m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 55m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 33m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 21m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 07:30 → LAX 08:37DL 306	1h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 10:26 → PDX 12:52DL 2766	7h 22m	96%	80%
United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	2h 57m Houston	IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740	8h 26m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	5h 48m	63%	55%
United Details →	AUS 19:32 → SFO 21:22UA 292	1h 11m San Francisco	SFO 22:33 → PDX 00:26 +1UA 8182	6h 54m	71%	54%
Delta Details →	AUS 18:04 → MSP 20:52DL 1042	46m Minneapolis	MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391	7h 14m	67%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON