tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 677 at 18:49, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 677 Southwest AUS 18:49 SNA 19:58 31% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:39 → SFO 15:32UA 1336 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 9h 16m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 13m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 8h 00m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:52 → DEN 10:13UA 595 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 8h 05m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:13 → IAH 17:19UA 685 3h 01m Houston IAH 20:20 → SNA 22:08UA 326 7h 55m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → AUS 15:29 → LAS 16:20DL 2260 2h 13m Las Vegas LAS 18:33 → SNA 19:49DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:02 → SFO 07:59UA 2177 2h 24m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → SNA 12:06UA 643 8h 04m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:09 → DFW 06:18AA 862 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:46 → SNA 11:15AA 1939 8h 06m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 44m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON