tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 294 at 17:44, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 294 Southwest AUS 17:44 TUL 19:18 23% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 06m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 31m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 38m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:52 → DEN 10:13UA 595 3h 27m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 1032 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 11:39 → TUL 13:26AA 2657 7h 07m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 58m Houston IAH 14:43 → TUL 16:34UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 6h 59m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:09 → DFW 06:18AA 862 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → TUL 09:44AA 2348 4h 35m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 7h 29m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 18:14 → SLC 20:05DL 2581 47m Salt Lake City SLC 20:52 → TUL 00:27 +1DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 71% 62%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:29 → DEN 20:00UA 439 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 66% 48%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 56m Houston IAH 20:06 → TUL 21:59UA 1927 3h 55m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON