Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4418 at 13:11 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 4418 AVL 13:11 → LGA 15:22 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest 9E 5133 AVL 18:53 → LGA 20:46 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 13:11	LGA 15:22	29%	22%	7.8%	70%
DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	AVL 12:17	LGA 14:15	34%	21%	5.9%	76%
AA 4704 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 18:42	LGA 20:56	46%	33%	12.4%	95%worse than usual
9E 5133 Endeavor	AVL 18:53	LGA 20:46	52%	35%	11.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON