Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	5h 43m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	AVL 18:27 → ATL 19:35DL 3101	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 12m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 57m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	7h 01m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	7h 13m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	5h 19m	90%	67%
American Details →	AVL 16:08 → DFW 17:44AA 569	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:14 → MSP 22:46AA 3149	7h 38m	94%	62%
United Details →	AVL 10:46 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	6h 27m	94%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 10:46 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	51m Chicago	ORD 12:42 → MSP 14:15UA 467	4h 29m	57%	35%
American Details →	AVL 11:31 → ORD 12:33AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	49m Chicago	ORD 13:22 → MSP 15:08AA 3133	4h 37m	45%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON