Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 364 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 364 BDL 07:51 → DEN 10:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2239 BDL 15:30 → DEN 17:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 364 United Flight history →	BDL 07:51	DEN 10:23	10%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 443 Southwest	BDL 13:56	DEN 16:18	32%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2239 United Flight history →	BDL 15:30	DEN 17:58	33%	7%	0.7%	78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	6h 02m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	BDL 18:55 → MSP 21:00DL 2285	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705	6h 32m	84%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON