Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2729 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2729 BDL 06:33 → DFW 09:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1367 BDL 18:28 → DFW 21:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2729 American Flight history →	BDL 06:33	DFW 09:46	11%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 1083 American	BDL 13:03	DFW 15:59	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1367 American Flight history →	BDL 18:28	DFW 21:46	33%	9%	1.3%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471	5h 53m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	59m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 39m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON