Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 635 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 635 BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YV 3997 BDL 14:57 → IAD 16:34 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 635 United Flight history →	BDL 06:00	IAD 07:26	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 1786 United Flight history →	BDL 10:29	IAD 12:04	8%	4%	0.7%	91%
YX 3401 Republic	BDL 19:41	IAD 21:37	19%	6%	1.7%	no record
YV 3997 Mesa	BDL 14:57	IAD 16:34	24%	8%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON