tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1905 at 05:57, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1905 American BDL 05:57 MIA 09:20 7% 3% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 57m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 58m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 7h 02m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 48m Dulles IAD 08:14 → MIA 11:10UA 1073 5h 10m 87% 79%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → MIA 12:19AA 2594 6h 18m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:34 → DCA 07:13AA 3081 2h 09m Washington DCA 09:22 → MIA 12:01AA 401 6h 27m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 26m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859 2h 56m Detroit DTW 14:31 → MIA 17:40DL 2548 7h 57m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → BDL 09:17 → DCA 11:00AA 5307 · flown by PSA 2h 44m Washington DCA 13:44 → MIA 16:27AA 1556 7h 10m 98% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BDL 11:35 → ATL 14:03DL 2951 47m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 20m 70% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON