Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1330 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1330 BDL 07:09 → MSP 09:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 2285 BDL 18:55 → MSP 21:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1330 Delta Flight history →	BDL 07:09	MSP 09:13	8%	3%	1.0%	86%
DL 2007 Delta Flight history →	BDL 11:39	MSP 13:34	14%	5%	1.0%	83%
DL 2285 Delta Flight history →	BDL 18:55	MSP 21:00	23%	11%	1.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON