tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1475 JetBlue Flight history → BDL 14:03 SJU 18:11 37% 12% 0.9% 65%
F9 4420 Frontier Flight history → BDL 22:27 SJU 02:43 38% 17% 2.2% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 08m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 34m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:14 → SJU 13:58DL 1882 7h 58m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 34m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361 3h 53m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 12h 18m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 39m 95% 74%
FrontierDetails → BDL 16:10 → MCO 19:20F9 2769 3h 57m Orlando MCO 23:17 → SJU 02:15 +1F9 4726 10h 05m 95% 72%
JetBlueDetails → BDL 06:58 → FLL 10:08B6 959 2h 35m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:43 → SJU 15:31B6 1453 8h 33m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → BDL 16:10 → MCO 19:20F9 2769 50m Orlando MCO 20:10 → SJU 23:22F9 2868 7h 12m 63% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON