Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5137 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 5137 BGR 05:36 → LGA 07:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5010 BGR 16:55 → LGA 18:36 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5137 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 05:36	LGA 07:15	14%	8%	4.1%	88%
DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 11:58	LGA 13:44	29%	18%	5.4%	80%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BGR 14:16	LGA 16:08	36%	20%	7.0%	83%worse than usual
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 16:55	LGA 18:36	44%	30%	9.5%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON