Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3374 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3374 BHM 06:51 → DCA 09:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5147 BHM 17:13 → DCA 20:31 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3374 Envoy	BHM 06:51	DCA 09:50	14%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 11:13	DCA 14:29	18%	8%	2.2%	77%
AA 5147 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:13	DCA 20:31	27%	13%	3.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON