Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 19–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YV 4006 BHM 09:02 → IAH 11:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3991 BHM 16:12 → IAH 18:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 4006 Mesa	BHM 09:02	IAH 11:08	19%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 4008 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	BHM 06:43	IAH 08:41	20%	5%	1.5%	85%
UA 4822 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	BHM 10:51	IAH 12:50	20%	5%	1.2%	90%
UA 4013 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	BHM 17:21	IAH 19:25	25%	11%	1.4%	79%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	BHM 16:12	IAH 18:17	26%	9%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON