Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 5829 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 5829 BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 4643 BIL 17:54 → DEN 19:36 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5829 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 05:00	DEN 06:53	13%	6%	2.9%	95%
UA 372 United Flight history →	BIL 07:03	DEN 09:02	18%	4%	1.5%	91%
UA 5463 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 10:40	DEN 12:33	23%	7%	2.7%	99%worse than usual
UA 478 United Flight history →	BIL 14:25	DEN 16:15	32%	9%	2.9%	75%
UA 4637 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 15:54	DEN 17:35	33%	10%	4.9%	84%worse than usual
OO 4643 SkyWest	BIL 17:54	DEN 19:36	36%	12%	5.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON