tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 420 at 14:13, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 420 Southwest BNA 14:13 BUF 17:04 20% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 01m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 13:21 → BUF 15:28DL 2266 6h 56m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:04 → ATL 19:22DL 3142 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → BUF 01:08 +1DL 2334 7h 04m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 7h 21m 99% 82%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 05:57 → BOS 09:30B6 806 2h 31m Boston BOS 12:01 → BUF 13:46B6 915 6h 49m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 47m Dulles IAD 13:04 → BUF 14:21UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 51m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 53m Charlotte CLT 08:53 → BUF 10:41AA 1203 4h 10m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → BUF 17:45DL 2050 5h 51m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 59m Denver DEN 17:28 → BUF 22:39UA 731 7h 10m 69% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON