Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 07:04, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2363 Southwest	BNA 15:10	BUR 17:57	26%	7%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:50 → BUR 13:25UA 2154	8h 25m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 45m	99%	78%
United Details →	BNA 08:01 → SFO 10:42UA 626	3h 08m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	9h 16m	98%	72%
American Details →	BNA 04:57 → DFW 07:09AA 2787	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:18 → BUR 11:57AA 1208	9h 00m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:51 → BUR 16:19AS 529	11h 17m	100%	69%
United Details →	BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766	3h 14m Denver	DEN 19:43 → BUR 21:17UA 2411	8h 48m	95%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON