Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1071 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 1071 BNA 06:18 → LGA 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1649 BNA 16:40 → LGA 19:48 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1071 Delta	BNA 06:18	LGA 09:49	10%	3%	3.0%	no record
WN 804 Southwest	BNA 06:28	LGA 09:51	10%	2%	2.3%	no record
AA 2854 American	BNA 06:09	LGA 09:39	17%	5%	2.5%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 09:11	LGA 12:24	22%	6%	3.7%	90%worse than usual
WN 4734 Southwest	BNA 10:42	LGA 14:11	28%	11%	4.1%	no record
AA 4370 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 10:50	LGA 14:11	29%	12%	5.9%	77%
YX 5617 Republic	BNA 12:35	LGA 15:51	34%	15%	6.1%	no record
WN 2518 Southwest	BNA 13:39	LGA 17:02	42%	21%	5.7%	no record
YX 4652 Republic	BNA 13:55	LGA 17:10	42%	19%	8.2%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 18:46	LGA 22:28	44%	25%	10.4%	67%worse than usual
WN 4592 Southwest	BNA 19:44	LGA 23:06	47%	25%	9.2%	no record
9E 5109 Endeavor	BNA 19:26	LGA 22:48	48%	27%	10.0%	no record
DL 1649 Delta	BNA 16:40	LGA 19:48	49%	26%	6.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON