Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1530 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1530 BNA 06:04 → RDU 08:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 696 BNA 17:11 → RDU 19:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1530 Southwest	BNA 06:04	RDU 08:42	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BNA 09:31	RDU 12:11	12%	4%	1.4%	82%
YX 4337 Republic	BNA 12:24	RDU 15:20	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 4740 Southwest	BNA 10:41	RDU 13:15	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 5247 Endeavor	BNA 20:00	RDU 22:39	21%	6%	1.9%	no record
YX 4368 Republic	BNA 17:03	RDU 19:51	21%	7%	1.9%	no record
WN 2445 Southwest	BNA 20:39	RDU 23:17	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 696 Southwest	BNA 17:11	RDU 19:50	28%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON