Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 700 at 10:09 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 700 BNA 10:09 → RSW 13:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 702 BNA 19:04 → RSW 22:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 700 Southwest	BNA 10:09	RSW 13:18	19%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 3089 Southwest	BNA 15:49	RSW 18:58	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 702 Southwest	BNA 19:04	RSW 22:12	33%	10%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON