Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4930 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4930 BNA 10:24 → SAV 12:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4852 BNA 19:04 → SAV 21:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4930 Southwest	BNA 10:24	SAV 12:57	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 274 Southwest	BNA 16:34	SAV 19:10	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4852 Southwest	BNA 19:04	SAV 21:39	26%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON