tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 28% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3091 Southwest BNA 12:44 SMF 15:19 21% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 15:33 → LAX 17:51DL 355 3h 44m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 9h 34m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:28 → LAX 08:40DL 891 3h 25m Los Angeles LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 7h 50m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 3h 07m Denver DEN 12:02 → SMF 13:40UA 2673 8h 40m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → SMF 18:52DL 743 9h 58m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → SMF 14:02AA 2078 8h 58m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → BNA 13:55 → LAS 16:10F9 3777 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 17:10 → SMF 18:49F9 4143 6h 54m 62% 39%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 19:54 → MDW 21:38WN 647 51m Chicago MDW 22:29 → SMF 00:47 +1WN 2994 6h 53m 50% 33%
UnitedDetails → BNA 17:33 → DEN 19:44UA 2201 47m Denver DEN 20:31 → SMF 22:15UA 1602 6h 42m 28% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON