tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 732 Southwest BNA 10:29 SRQ 13:27 14% 3% 2.1% no record
WN 3364 Southwest BNA 16:59 SRQ 20:11 20% 9% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:49 → SRQ 10:26DL 3196 4h 16m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104 5h 07m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:04 → ATL 19:22DL 3142 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 6h 41m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 6h 50m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 13:55 → ATL 16:10DL 3159 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057 6h 36m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 5h 23m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328 6h 54m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:32 → MIA 19:55AA 487 2h 59m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 27m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 18:34 → MIA 21:55AA 323 59m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 4h 25m 65% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON