Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3405 BOI 07:32 → GEG 07:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2317 BOI 16:47 → GEG 17:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3405 SkyWest	BOI 07:32	GEG 07:56	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3208 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 13:04	GEG 13:28	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 20:46	GEG 21:10	16%	6%	1.0%	85%
QX 2317 Horizon	BOI 16:47	GEG 17:11	16%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON