Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5386 BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2353 BOI 15:18 → ORD 19:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5386 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:25	ORD 13:10	25%	13%	2.2%	85%worse than usual
UA 642 United	BOI 12:22	ORD 16:59	31%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	BOI 15:18	ORD 19:54	33%	14%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	50m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → ORD 11:32DL 1567	5h 02m	87%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON